Alacer Gold Stock Analysis – Why I bought and why I sold

 

  • I sold Alacer because it is not a value play anymore, it is more of an exploration play now.
  • What the market didn’t see last year was positive growth, what the market is missing now, might be a negative in the form of lower future ore grades.
  • However, there are still 3 catalysts that could push the stock price higher; a dividend, more exploration success at Aldrich and, as always, higher gold prices.

In 2018 I did a comprehensive analysis of gold miners, I spent more than a month on them and deeply researched about 40. I wasn’t pleased with what I found but Alacer Gold (ALIAF) (ALACF) looked good. We can say it was my favorite gold miner in 2018 as it was not just a bet on gold, but a value play with a nice business proposition thanks to the Copler sulfide project.

Since then things have changed, most significantly the stock price increased as the market noticed what ALIAF has been doing.

alacer.PNG
As the exploration results led to a new resource that will feed the old oxide plant, the management increased guidance and said ALIAF could become a 300k to 400k ounces producer.

alacer management

Source: SA Transcript

However, the path towards such high production levels is long and the ore grades of the sulfide ore aren’t really indicative of higher, sustainable future production. But this doesn’t mean there are no catalysts for ALIAF or that it now is a bad investment. The catalysts that could push it higher in 2019 are a dividend or buybacks, new successful exploration results and higher gold prices.

For me, when the stock price increases and reaches my intrinsic value, the risks are higher and the rewards lower so I prefer to find other, less risky value investments with a margin of safety.

You can hear more about why I sold in my video discussion.

0:43 My Alacer Ownership

1:57 Why did I buy Alacer

3:35 Sum of parts value

4:28 What changed recently for ASR

5:28 Stockpile and ore grade difference

6:33 Ardich expansion and exploration

7:30 Cash flow model

7:58 3 future catalysts

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Stock Market News – Forget About News

Stock Market News – Stocks might crash, recession ahead, so what?

Will there be a stock market crash, will there be a recession? In this article I’ll show you why it doesn’t really matter and what are the real things you should focus on!

We will discuss:

Contents

Politics and economic news vs. business news

Earnings are the key, not economics

Market valuations

Will there be a crash?

Earnings and volatility

How to take advantage of volatility

Invest when you are happy with the business earnings

 

Politics and economic news vs. business news

Over the past years, I’ve been making some macroeconomic videos, I like the mental exercise, analysing the long-term risks etc. However, I must say, all that ‘mumbo jumbo’; GDP, economy, debt, trade wars, employment, housing etc. hasn’t helped me at all when it comes to investing. I am subscribed to an economic newsletter from the Wall Street Journal and in the last 4 weeks there were two positive and two negative headlines all about the US housing market, so funny.

The fact is that companies are living beings that adapt to circumstances, grow and change over time. By looking at the business, not the economy is actually where I get my investing value. As I am really pushing on the research, more and more of it will be business specific and less macro. Although macro is fun to look at, discuss and you can talk about it for eternity, talking about it doesn’t really help your portfolio.

For example, the S&P 500 has been flat since January 2018.

news

Source: CNN Money S&P 500

The point is that nobody could have predicted where the S&P 500 could have gone, it could have been up 20% or down 30%. It is all a guess, no matter how much macro you study. The point is that we have to focus on the business, nothing else.

I’ll take this opportunity to discuss the real news and news that could be important for your portfolio.

  • Extremely important news 1: your long-term investment returns are driven by earnings

Earnings are the key, not economics

In 1999, S&P 500 earnings were 58.55 points. Today we are at 130 points. That is an increase of 122%.

2 S&P 500 earnings

Source: Multpl

How did the market do? Well, the S&P 500 was at 1282 points in 1999 and now it is at 2757 points, up 115%.

3 s&P 500

Earnings are up 122% and the market is up 115% over the last 20 years. In the mean time we have had the dot-com bubble crash, the great recession, a European crisis, Japan not growing anymore, a commodity boom and bust etc. Who knows what will we have in the next 20 years, but no matter what happens, good businesses will do well. Another thing that helps very much with determining stock market returns are valuations.

  • Keep an eye on valuations because the market is extremely differentiated

Market valuations

In 1999 the S&P 500 was at 1282 points with earnings of 58.55 that leads to a PE ratio of 22. Thus, the earnings yield is approximately 4.5%.

1282*1.045^20= 3091 points

According to the valuation, investors could have expected a return of 4.5% based on the valuation they were paying in 1999. The return was even a bit higher when you add the dividends of just below 2% per year.

4 s&P 500 dividend yield

Source: Multpl

The current market’s valuation is 21, so your expected long term investing yield should be around 4.5% as it was in the last 20 years.

5 S&P 500 pe ratio

Source: Multpl

Will there be a crash?

There will definitely be market crashes in the future but you can’t time them. Let’s say there is a crash of 30% 6 years from now but in the meantime, the S&P 500 grows at 5% per year. This would say that from the current 2757, the S&P 500 would go to 3694 points. If then it crashes 30%, we would be down to 2585 but by waiting for the crash you would have missed on the dividends so you wouldn’t be ahead. However, as we spoke that earnings are key, you can invest for higher than 4.5% returns by investing in earnings and taking advantage of the volatility.

  • The market is extremely differentiated and volatile – learn about the business

Earnings and volatility

If I look at the top 10 positions of the S&P 500, the PE ratios vary extremely and I can tell you that returns will vary extremely over the next 20 years.

6 pe ratio

Source: IVV

If we take a look at the top 10 S&P 500 holdings from 20 years ago, only two companies were there that are still in it.

7 top 10 1999

Source: ETFDB

Therefore, it is extremely important to look at try to understand where could your investment be in the next 20 years. This doesn’t mean that if a company falls out the top 10 it will be a bad investment. However, you can avoid buying companies with too stretched price to sales ratios and extremely high earnings valuations where the actual business doesn’t justify.

The point is that when you follow a company for a few years you begin to understand it much better than the media does, you understand its natural cycles and how to invest around those.

This allows you to take advantage of volatility. It is pretty simple if you have a long term view.

How to take advantage of volatility

The easiest was to take advantage of volatility is to rebalance your positions in relation to the earnings yield those offer.

8 rebalancing

The only problem is that you have to move your focus away from the news and future expected earnings and simply focus on the real current business earnings. Just 6 months ago, Apple’s stock was above $232 only to fall down to $142 in January and now rebound to $173. Apple’s earnings didn’t change that much, so if you focus on the earnings yield you can buy more when the earnings yield is higher, PE lower, and less when the yield is lower, thus the PE ratio higher.

I didn’t buy Apple, but in the summer of 2018 I invested a bit in Brazil because I did find an interesting business there.

9 brazil

Source: EWZ

I didn’t sell yet, but the increase in price gives me a nice thing to think about and see how it fits my portfolio. The point is that it is all easy when you invest in businesses. Which leads me to the most important news of all:

  • Invest in the business, be an owner

Invest when you are happy with the business earnings

By focusing on the earnings and not on the news, investing becomes easy. What is your required investment return?

4.5% – buy the S&P 500 and forget about it

7% – buy good businesses when their PE ratios are around 14

10% – same but at PE ratio of 10, or higher ratios buy with some growth

15% – look at good businesses in distressed sectors, value investments and take advantage of the market’s short term focus. This implies a lot of work but it is possible to find such opportunities.

To summarize:

  • Forget about news, focus on the business reality, the long-term reality
  • Earnings are the drivers of your investment returns, be a business owner
  • Focusing on earnings will allow you to take advantage of the market’s irrationality, or better to say volatility

News, economy, stock market crash, recession, GDP, Trump – not adding value to your investing, so focus on the business and that is what we do here, so please SUBSCRIBE!

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$13 Million-Dollar Investment Bank Managed Stock Market And Bond Portfolio Review

A month or something ago, I was contacted by an investor that had just set up a portfolio with an investment bank. He told them that his risk tolerance is minimal and that he would like some capital appreciation in the long term. He asked me to review the portfolio and that is what we are going to do now.

Here is the video version, while those who prefer reading, can find the article below.

The topics:

$13 million-dollar investment bank managed stock market and bond portfolio review:

  • US equity portfolio exposure & issues
  • International equity portfolio exposure
  • Fixed income portfolio

General banking fees and value for money

  • Discussion about fees and risk reward opportunities

Investment strategy

  • Portfolio management
  • Risk and reward
  • What would I do differently?

Stock market and bond portfolio review

Here is how the portfolio has been structured:

US equity is 22.74%, international stocks 25.52% and as the requirement was low risk, 48.5% has been placed into US fixed income. This has been done by putting the money into 3 different bank funds (more about bank fees later). The yearly management fee is 0.9%.

Let’s start with US equity exposure.

US equity portfolio exposure

The portfolio positions are listed from the largest to the smallest. The client automatically replicates the positions held by the 3 funds within his account.

us equity portfolio

The largest position is Advance Auto Parts (AAP). I don’t know whether the fund bought the stock at the bottom in February of 2018 or it was a long term holding as the unrealized gains and losses in the above table go back to when the portfolio investment was made, which is February 2018.

AAP, has had free cash flows between $300 and $500 million per year over the last 10 years on a $10 billion market capitalization. I would expect the return there to be around 4% in the future. Auto parts are a competitive business but can be recession proof.

The next position is Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA), a company that recently won its bidding war and acquired Sky Plc for $38.8 billion. The all cash offer will put more pressure on Comcast’s balance sheet that already has $114 billion in liabilities. Plus, Sky Plc has had operating cash flows of around $2 billion per year in the last 10 years. This makes it a stretched acquisition as the interest on the debt will be close to the $2 billion of free cash flow coming from Sky.

Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE) is another stable company with high free cash flows and a potential return of around 4 to 5%. Free cash flows are $2 billion on a $42 billion market cap.

Danaher is the 4th largest US portfolio position (NYSE: DHR) is another stable company with $3 billion in cash flows on a $70 billion market cap.

Progressive Corp Ohio (NYSE: PGR) is an insurer and Kroger (NYSE: KR) is a grocer with similar characteristics as the above businesses. All have dividend yields of around 2%, stable business models, we can call them recession proof business models, and price to cash flow ratios of around 20 that should lead to a return of around 4 to 5%.

If we look at other portfolio positions, those mostly replicate the above. All good companies and fairly priced by the market. The portfolio also holds Google or better to say Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL), American Express (NYSE: AXP), Mastercard (NYSE: MA) and we could easily say that the US equity portfolio reflects the client’s wishes: safety and quality.

US equity portfolio potential issues

I have two issues I want to discuss. The first is the value added in relation to the charged fee and the second is the fund management cost environment and investment process which is possibly even more important than fees.

Investment fees and value added

The first issue with the US equity portfolio part might be that there are 26 positions. If we look at professor and 1990 Economics Nobel prize winner Sharp’s seminal work on risk: Risk, Market Sensitivity, and Diversification, published in the Financial Analysts Journal in 1972, we see that as soon as you pass 20 positions in your portfolio, the risk equals the market’s risk.

Source: Risk, Market Sensitivity, and Diversification – CFA publications

We have seen that the expected returns from a price to cash flow standpoint will be around 4 to 5%. However, if we look at the top positions of the S&P 500, their price to cash flows don’t differ much from the ratios of the analysed portfolio and the businesses in the S&P 500 can be considered of quality too.

Source: iShares S&P 500 ETF

Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) has a cash flow yield on price of 3.75%, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) of 8%, Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) of 1.8% but we might argue that in 10 years, AMZN might have higher cash flows than Kroger. Berkshire (NYSE: BRK.A, BRK.B) is a diversified portfolio focused on US equity by itself, it holds great businesses and it has a price to free cash flow ratio of around 4%.

This leads me to the question, is the 0.9% yearly fee our friend is paying for the above portfolio justified? One can buy the S&P 500 for a yearly fee of 0.04% which is 22.5 times smaller than what is being paid to the investment bank or there is always the option to simply buy Berkshire and let Buffett and his fellows manage the money at no cost practically.

To conclude on the investment fees, I don’t think that in this case, paying a yearly fee of 0.9% adds any kind of value given that the stocks might look a bit more conservative than the S&P 500 but such bet is based on past performance and not part of a strategy. In this digital era world, one might argue that Amazon is more defensive than Kroger.

Investment fund behavior

The thing when it comes to banks is that there is a lot your bank is not telling you.

Aside from the 0.9% yearly management fee, the bank makes money as they buy and sell through their own broker, perhaps they are even the market maker for the security, they pay for research, marketing costs, administration etc. that might not be included in the first fee you pay but might be included in the costs of the second fund that you actually don’t see. In this case, as the clients owns the positions directly, only the brokerage, custodian and market maker fees come into account, but that is still something extra.

Investment fund management process

Now, there is another thing when it comes to investment funds that is not discussed much. When things go well, all is good, but when things go south, some clients might want their money back. The investment manager is put into a tough spot because he then has to make investment decisions based on external inputs which might not be in the best interest of other clients. For example, if I manage a $1 billion portfolio, there is panic in the markets and clients want to cash in on $300 million. Liquidity usually dries up on the market too at such moments and you cannot sell your positions easily, especially your bond positions. (Remember that the positions discussed above are part of a much bigger fund)

The investment manager has no option than to sell the most liquid assets which might be the best assets to hold in the long term. Further, an investment manager has to be invested 100% all the time. Investment managers, collecting a fee of 0.9%, don’t have the option Buffett has. Buffett has $114 billion dollars practically lying on Berkshire’s bank account waiting for a market panic so that he can buy stocks on the cheap. (Buffett’s cash is invested in short term US Government Treasuries with an average maturity of 4-months – can be considered as cash)

This is something few think about when things go well, but crucial when things go south. Our friend has no influence on that and unfortunately this is where things often go wrong with funds managed by investment banks. An investment manager has to do as ordered, not as he wishes or what would be in the best interest of the client.

International stock portfolio overview

The international part is 25.52% of the whole portfolio and has a total of 68 positions. Since the inception of the portfolio, the performance of the international part has been really bad as almost all the positions are down with some like Ryanair (LON: RYA) down 34%. This is nothing strange given that international stocks and emerging markets have really suffered during 2018.

international stocks 1

international stocks 2

The largest position is Medtronic (MDT), followed by Unilever (UN), Compass Group (CMPGY), Aptiv (APTV) and Ryanair (RYAAY). There is a little bit of everything there with Tencent (TCEHY), BHP Billiton (BHP), the Indian Icici Bank (IBN), the Russian version of Facebook – Yandex (YNDX) and some interesting Chinese stocks like 58.com (WUBA) or South American payment processors like Cielo SA (CIOXY).

Now, Medtronic (NYSE: MDT) – the world’s largest medical device company makes most of its revenues and profits from the U.S. healthcare system but is headquartered in Ireland for tax purposes. Thus, this is not an international stock but goes under the international portfolio. Free yearly cash flows have been around $4 billion over the past 10 years and the market cap is $120 billion.

Nevertheless, holding 69 stocks doesn’t move the needle and we can expect them to perform equally as the market does. Therefore, one can simply buy the Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS) for a fee of 0.11% per year.

If I compare Vanguard’s top 10 positions and the portfolio we are analysing, I see that Royal Dutch Shell pls (NYSE: RDS) is in both portfolios, same as Tencent (TCEHY), Novartis (NVS), Roche (RHHBY) and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM).

Source: Vanguard

So, a portfolio I am paying 0.9% to be managed has 5 positions that are also in the Vanguard Total International stock ETF top 10 positions with a management fee of 0.11%.

Let’s see if there is more value added in the bond portfolio.

US fixed income portfolio

48% of the portfolio is placed into a bond fund and the holdings are the following.

bonds 1

bonds 2

The majority of the bond portfolio is in US Treasuries, 18% of it, with maturities ranging from 2021 to 2026. The yield on those is less then 2% or around that. Then there is a bunch of other corporate bonds with yields between 1% and 4% on average and maturities ranging from 2022 to 2028 on average.

Now, the first thing is that if 9% of the total portfolio is in Treasuries, why would you ever have to pay any fees on that as with a $13 million dollar portfolio you can simply buy them yourself. Or, if you want, the Vanguard Treasury ETFs has a fee of 0.07%.

Secondly, the investment grade US corporate bond ETF from Vanguard, offers much higher yields for minimal fees.

Source: Vanguard

On a portfolio of 66 bonds, 60 excluding the Treasuries, I simply don’t see any difference except the huge fees. The intermediate corporate bond ETF, has a yield of 4.35% and is managed by Vanguard.

Conclusion – portfolio management and risk reward

The holder of this portfolio hoped that I can manage part of his portfolio and perhaps create an all-weather portfolio for his holdings. I declined because my current investing focus accepts a little bit more risk as we are focused on long term return maximization which isn’t what the goal of this portfolio is. I am completely devoted to what I do and creating another portfolio alongside building mine would be impossible. On the all-weather portfolio, I am partly working on it, but an all-weather portfolio focuses first on neutralizing risk and not that much on maximizing returns. You cannot get high, Buffett like returns with an all-weather and that is why I cannot focus my whole work around it and this portfolio. I takes at least a year of hard work to build a portfolio.

Secondly, if I would have to manage the money as required, the way explained above would be one way of doing it. I cannot charge $117,000 per year for the above as the investment bank is doing, I simply can’t. Well, you have it above for free.

What we actually did is that we have created a smaller part of the portfolio to follow my portfolio that I manage on my Stock Market Research Platform. This should add a bit more diversification as it is focused on absolute value and not that correlated to markets. Plus, there are some hedges too.

Portfolio risk reward

Now, what we still have to discuss are the risks of the above portfolio in relation to the rewards. We have seen that the yield on Treasuries now should be around 3%, and the return on equities could be at 4%, up to 6% on the international portfolio. Given the 10-year maturity of the bonds, that is what the holder can expect, deduct 2% inflation and you have a real return of about zero on the bond portfolio which would be closer to 2% with Vanguard.

50% of the portfolio is in stocks and given that the number of stocks held is 90, one should expect equal to market returns, US equity markets and international equity markets. The biggest risk here is a contraction in valuations. If global investors start to require a 6% investment yield in place of the current 4%, that could lead to a decline of 50% on global stock markets and a similar decline within the equity portfolio. Also, as bonds are priced in relation to interest rates, I would expect a significant decline in the bond portfolio too.

Thus, the upside is limited but the downside is pretty big. This is because there is no strategy behind the discussed portfolio, it is over diversified, there are no hedges in place, no real diversification as we have seen bonds and stocks move in correlation during the turmoil of the last few months.

What makes me sad is that most pension funds are managed in the above way with outrageous fees. In a video on Canadian pension funds I discussed how fees go up to 2% per year for practically nothing. This is outrageous and the first thing I would tell people to do is to start educating themselves about what can be done when it comes to investing their hard-earned money.

Perhaps, individual stock picking the way I do it will not be for most, but lowering a management fee from 2% per year to 0.1% makes a hack of a big difference within a portfolio. Actually, it makes almost a 100% difference on a long-term portfolio over 30 years based on current market return expectations.

If all that you change in your financial life and investment portfolio is that you get a lower fee or even eliminate fees, the above is how much it affects a $1 million portfolio over a 30-year period and 4% market returns per year. The differences are staggering.

Investment strategy

From a general perspective, an approach like the one discussed above offers no strategy, it is a purely market following and extremely diversified investment. Thus, such a general approach certainly doesn’t deserve to charge a 0.9% fee. The lack of alpha, the lack of an investment strategy, a portfolio that resembles an index is just part of what is not good in story we discussed up till now.

The following chart shows how there are different investment strategies and the one discussed today is probably the most obsolete. However, banks still manage to sell it to clients due to a lack of financial education.

My opinion would be that the investor should first create a clear strategy about what is the goal for his funds and then put that goal into a risk and reward perspective within a well-diversified portfolio based on a well-balanced strategy.

Such a strategy is what we focus on so if you enjoyed this kind of investment educational content shared above please follow, subscribe, like and share.

About the author: Sven Carlin, Ph.D. is passionate about investment research and value investing. He also manages the Sven Carlin Stock Market Research Platform based on long term value and business investing principles.

Brexit – An Objective Investing Perspective

  • Politics aside, it is important to have a clear investing perspective on how can our portfolio positions be affected by Brexit.
  • For now, markets are pricing in more pain for Europe, than Britain.
  • There are some stocks that should be avoided and some that shouldn’t be impacted at all, on the contrary.

Brexit is a very hot topic in Europe nowadays. However, it is important to separate your investing perspective from whatever might be your political views. I sit down with Niche Masters Fund with head investment manager, Peter Barklin, and discuss his very interesting, objective investing perspective, on the potential implications of Brexit for us as investors.

Just as an interesting note from the video, European stocks (VGK) (IEUR) have been hit harder than UK stocks (EWU). This shows that the Brexit isn’t just all bad for Britain and that we must carefully weigh the pros and cons.

Video content:

0:00 Introduction
1:40 Brexit for investors
3:27 What to own
5:08 Brexit benefits
7:04 Brexit and Europe
10:05 Portfolio positioning
11:29 Brexit risk perspective

Enjoy the video.

www.nichemastersfund.com

Sven Carlin Research Platform: https://sven-carlin-research-platform.teachable.com/

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How to invest in businesses with dr. Per Jenster

I recently had the privilege to interview dr. Per Jenster. He is a Fullbright scolar, author of many books, former dean of the Kopenhagen Business school, entrepreneur with more than 20 ventures of which many went public for hundreds of millions and he is an investor that has his own hedge fund. A person from whom we can learn very much. Enjoy the interview.

In case you want to reach Prof Jenster or know more about how he invests, please go to … http://nichemastersfund.com

Here is the video and you can find the discussion topics below the video.

0:27 Who is Per Jenster

1:33 What to look when investing in a business

3:59 Fund based on a niche strategy

6:01 Companies we are investing in

8:30 Management

10:00 HIGHER PE for HIGH ROIC

10:44 Index funds

13:10 Trading

14:24 Strategic focus

15:57 Current stock market

18:25 Diversification

20:31 Investing education

21:36 Modern investing

23:32 Learn to be better at investing

 

7 Things To Watch Before Investing In Gold Miners

 

  • Investing is about risk and reward. I feel many miss the risk part when it comes to investing, especially in the mining environment.
  • I discuss 7 risk factors that will help you avoid investing in the wrong miners.
  • ETFs, with their mindless investing strategy, are increasing the danger of investing in the mining environment.

Miners, especially gold miners (GDX) (GDXJ), don’t have a great reputation in the investing world. Unfortunately for them, that is rightfully so. It is often the case that the management is more focused on the stock market, than on business performance. A quote from the 19th century explains it very well!

Gold mining stocksIn such an environment, one must be very careful. The key is to understand the risk and not do stupid things like investing on hope or going after a good story.

An investment in a miner has to be founded on a real business analysis of its fundamentals and a careful assessment of the risks and rewards. On top of that, one should know the miner’s sensitivity to the respective metal’s cycle.

Investing while excluding the above, cannot even be called speculation, it is pure betting and you know what are the odds when it comes to betting.

In this video I share 7 things to analyze when investing in miners, or at least to take into consideration when analyzing the risk and reward of a specific investment. The things to watch are the following:

(0:39) – ETF ownership and business value

(1:47) – A general valuation of miners

(3:40) – Book values are often misleading

(6:05) – Advertising your own stock with Google ads

(7:09) – Example of operational risks in the mining industry

(7:53) – Dividends and cash flows

(9:00) – The value within junior miners and the Van Eck Junior miners ETF

Enjoy the video.

Nassim Taleb is warnings us – situation worse than in 2007

  • The US government has $21 trillion of debt, but few know and think about the $49 trillion in hidden debt.
  • The global economy is not stable because the core is cracking already, think Italy.
  • Taleb compares this debt environment with a Ponzi or Maddoff scheme.
  • The main message is to be protected (gold, real assets, puts).

In a recent Bloomberg video, Nassim Taleb, the author of Black Swan and probably one of the best estimators of risk, is warning us that the financial situation is worse than it was in 2007.

As Taleb doesn’t share much data in his interview, I have researched each of his statements and attached a few facts to them.

The topics he discusses and I dig deeper into are:

  • (0:00) Introduction
  • (1:23) The bigger debt pile that has just been transferred from housing to governments.
  • (4:16) The hidden debt few are taking into account.
  • (5:48) How the economy is already cracking in some places.
  • (6:32) The high probability of a global currency collapse.
  • (8:01) What will happen and how will it pan out? Inflation.
  • (9:36) 4 ways to protect yourself.

Enjoy the video.

ARE THE STOCK MARKET AND ECONOMY IN A BUBBLE? 7 FACTOR EXPLANATION

I recently summarized Dalio’s last book, Big DEBT CRISES and there he shares his questions, check list, to see whether the stock market or economy is in a bubble or not. In today’s article, in light of the FED’s tightening, we are going to go through his questions, to see whether we are in a bubble or not.

1 bubble questions

Source: Big Debt Crises

Good day fellow investors,

my name is Sven Carlin and I am an independent investor, independent thinker who doesn’t really like to follow the crowd, that has served me well in my life and, I have the feeling it will serve me well in the future too. Let’s go through Dalio’s questions one by one and then conclude with what to do, where Dalio’s option is to have an all-weather portfolio.

We are going to look at whether the US economy and stock market are in a bubble. As for Europe, I’ll make a special article about it due to the many economies.

  1. PRICES ARE HIGH RELATIVE TO TRADITIONAL MEASURES

The US stock market is expensive and prices are much higher than traditional measures.

2 stock market price

Source: Multpl

A look at the cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio for the S&P 500 that takes into account 10 years of earnings, shows how stock prices were higher only during the dot-com bubble. But, let’s not focus only on stocks, let’s look at housing.

3 house price to income ratio

Source: Longtermtrends

The home price to income ratio is not higher than it was in 2007 but is getting close to it and it is much higher than it was in the past 50 years. Incomes were low in the 1950s so that isn’t really comparable.

To answer question one: yes, prices are high relative to historical measures.

2. PRICES ARE DISCOUNTING FUTURE RAPID PRICE APPRECIATION FROM THESE HIGH LEVELS

If we take a look at the S&P 500 and at S&P 500 forward expected earnings, all we can see is fast growth.

4 price and earnings

Source: FACTSET

So, huge growth is expected, S&P 500 actual earnings are at 116 points while the market expects them to be at 175 points in the next 12 months.

5 s&p 500 actual earnings

Source: Multpl

As for home prices, the huge run up in prices up to 2018 showed bubble characteristics but it has been cooling of as interest rates go up.

6 new home prices in the us

Source: FRED

So, perhaps what we have seen up to December of 2017 will again be called a bubble as higher interest rates inevitably put pressure on asset prices. Not yet on stocks as the sentiment is still strong but you can’t escape when it comes to housing.

ANSWER: YES, prices are discounting fast future price appreciation, certainly in stocks, whereas it might be over for housing.

3. THERE IS BROAD BULLISH SENTIMENT

Let’s see, Kudlow states the US economy is crushing it.

7 kudlow

Source: CNBC

While consumer confidence is close to record highs.

8 consumer confidence

Source: FRED

Answer: YES, sentiment is bullish! Even with stocks, the sentiment has been extremely greedy in 2018.

9 greed

Source: CNN

4. PURCHASES ARE BEING FINANCED BY HIGH LEVERAGE

This is not in a bubble, consumer credit is just 50% higher than where it was in 2008 and is just 10 times higher than where it was in 1980. (allow for some irony here)

10 consumer credit

Source: FRED

As for the stock market, margin debt is at historical highs. Just to mention as a comparative note, margin debt was $263 billion in February of 2010 and $314 billion in July of 2008.

11 margin debt

Source: FINRA

Answer: YES, purchases are increasingly being financed by debt.

5. BUYERS HAVE MADE EXTENDED FORWARD PURCHASES

If we look at the level of business inventories, those are 33% higher than in 2008 and I don’t think the economy grew 33% since 2008.

12 inventories

Source: FRED

Answer: a mild yes in this case.

6. NEW BUYERS HAVE ENTERED THE MARKET

Now, the percentage of Americans owning stocks didn’t really go up that much lately as millennials don’t invest that much in stocks.

13 people invested

Source: Gallup

The middle class left after 2008, typical behaviour, buying high and selling low. If we see another bump like in 2007 where the participation jumped from 61% to 65%, we will know it’s a bubble. Those aged 35 and above are investing a bit but not yet like it had been the case.

14 americans invested

Source: Gallup

However, not investing in stocks but definitely saving for a house. New buyers are rushing into the home market.

15 new mortgages

Source: Bloomberg

Answer: with stocks it is a no but with houses it is a yes. Also, it is important to note the widening wealth gap where those that have invest more and push stocks higher while those that don’t have, simply don’t have to invest.

7. STIMULATIVE MONETARY POLICY THREATENS TO INFLATE THE BUBBLE EVEN MORE (and tight policy to cause its popping)

Interest rates have been already tightening and we can expect more in December.

16 interest rate

Source: FRED

However, just take a look at historical interest rates.

17 historical interest rates

Source: FRED

On top of monetary stimulus, there is huge fiscal stimulus.

18 budged deficit

Source: FRED

On top of the already huge deficit, the deficit is expected to breach $1 trillion in 2019.

So, to summarize on the questions:

19 summary

WHAT TO DO:

Now, that depends on where you are in your life, about to retire or just starting, but in any case, an all-weather portfolio is the key as we are in the late part of the cycle.

debt dalio

Source: Big Debt Crises

We are at bubble top – so a lot of opportunities to diversify by selling what is in a bubble and buying what is in depression. In a global world you can do that today.

If you wish to check how am I building my portfolio as I cashed out of most my long investments during 2015-to 2018, the last being Nevsun – you might want to check my Stock market research platform where I am slowly building my model portfolio that should do very well in this environment.

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Ray Dalio – Big Debt Crises – Summary (video/audio)

Ray Dalio, the legendary hedge fund manager is out with a new book. After the success he achieved with his book on Principles, he has now summarized Bridgewater’s research on debt crises in a new book called Big Debt Crises.

Ray Dalio – Big Debt Crises

The book contains 48 case studies on inflationary and deflationary crises and the first 61 pages summarize the findings. I urge you to read at least the first 61 pages but if you want an intro for it and perhaps prefer listening, here is a summary:

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