Stock Market Crash, Economic Collapse, Rigged Markets? How to invest rationally!
Good day fellow investors,
Last week I made the news on the topic how one should focus on the businesses he invests in and not so much on the macroeconomics.
I’ve got this interesting email discussing how I am missing many points:
Underlying factors that affect the metrics you used in your article:
- The role of the ESF in market ‘rigging’. – U.S. Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund
- Stock buybacks from the new tax code (fudging the numbers you are working with).
- The key role the central banks are playing by keeping interest rates artificially depressed, thus not exposing the true cost of debt servicing.
- The sheer number of Zombie companies and historic high levels of BBB bonds.
Plus, how I should contact Peter Schiff, Gregory Mannerino and I would get quickly to 100k subscribers!
All the above is all correct, if I make a business analysis, I get 2k views, if I put stock market crash in the title, I get 4 times more views.
And in this article, I really want to put the topics of market rigging, buybacks, low interest rates, zombie companies into an investing perspective because I think there is a big difference between investing and protecting yourself from something that might happen but doesn’t have to happen.
When it comes to investing, the key is to achieve the best risk reward return and always remain solvent, no matter how irrational the market might seem.
Contents
Stock Market Fear and Irrationality
THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW TO INVEST?
Stock buybacks from the new tax code (fudging the numbers you are working with)
Artificially depressed interest rates
Corporate credit, zombie companies, government debt
How to invest keeping the risks in mind
THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW TO INVEST?
One should think about HOW TO GET BOTH; good returns from businesses and protection from what might happen while taking advantage of possible market rigging. That is what I focus on and the message of this article is to try to give more balance to the possibly predominant message on YouTube regarding Stock market Crashes and Economic collapses etc.
We as investors have to focus on how to get the best risk reward return to reach our financial goals. Let’s say that gold explodes in 2034, I bet you that 98% of all those invested in gold at the moment, would not have the patience to wait till then to realize profits. That is one, plus, by 2034, if you have $1k now and you get a 15% return because you understand the market;
You know it is rigged,
You know buybacks are strong,
You know interest rates will remain low, or inflationary due to the huge debt,
You stay away from zombie companies, buy those that will do even better when the competition dissolves!
Your 1k become 8k thanks to the power of compounding, earnings and dividends that you don’t get if you buy insurance. Actually, insurance is a cost.
Let me put the things into perspective!
Market rigging!
The market has been rigged since ever – it is in the interest of most politicians, policy makers and people that stocks go up, pensions go up, everybody has more money, more confidence, spends more and even wages go up a bit – so it is in the interest of the current economies that markets go up, collaterals go down, and everybody is pushing for it to go up.
Take advantage of it.
On silver markets, gold markets, there are many speculators that make it look crazy and rigged because there is no rationality there. You can’t eat gold; no dividend and it doesn’t grow. In the 1980-s the Hunt brothers tried to rig the silver market. They owned 30% of global silver but regulations broke them.
Silver price:
Stock buybacks from the new tax code (fudging the numbers you are working with)
Source: Reuters
$940 billion of buybacks expected in 2019, that is 3% of the market.
There will be ups and downs, but some buybacks are smart if made below book value, or replacement value or intrinsic value, and those values are in the eye of the beholder.
Source: Yardeni
Try to find buybacks that increase your value, your ownership and avoid those that destroy shareholder value. Compare many stocks and you will find the difference.
Artificially depressed interest rates
As long as it works, it does good in the short term while it is uncertain for the long term – again, as an investor you have to understand the game and play it wisely. The tide could change with a big inflation, but that is why I invest in businesses that would do well if there is inflation but that also do well in this environment. I get dividends, I get growth, expansion etc.
Source: FRED
Corporate credit, zombie companies, government debt
Governments and corporations have increased their leverage as low interest rates allowed for lower borrowing costs. US government debt quadrupled in the last 20 years.
Source: FRED
However, this situation can be solved with inflation for the government and with bailouts for corporations. Plus, when zombie corporations finally fail, the environment will be healhier for good businesses. I’ll talk more about that in the next article discussing Archer Daniel Midlands (NYSE: ADM) where the CEO actually hopes for higher rates to limit the competition.
How to invest keeping the risks in mind
Now, what I just said, doesn’t mean I completely disregard it, I’m not stupid, I am not invested in companies that would go bankrupt in case interest rates go up, I am looking for both, both good businesses, that offer business returns and protection in case of any kind of crisis.
You have three options to invest your money!
The first option is to focus on protection: gold, put options, Treasuries (if you can call them protection). The second option is to focus on businesses, growth, business returns and investments.
Your $1k becomes $8k in 15 years with a 15% yearly return. If you own gold, and the dollar loses 50% of its value, you are at $2k, no dividends, no business, a lot of stress because you depend on what others are willing to pay, not on actual value.
I must say I did a lot of research on macro, especially when I was writing articles on a daily basis three years ago as that was my job, but my conclusion is, that one should be smart and take advantage of what is going on and not bet on something happening because it is logical to happen.
The situation was crazy in 2009, and many sold what they had fearing the macro voices, I was buying businesses in 2009, nice 5 baggers for me.
I took a loan 4 years ago, bought a house, and it was probably the best risk reward investment in my life. Fearing a crash would have me being without huge gains over the last 10 years.
The third investing option is to have it both. For example, a company I was heavily invested in 2018 was Nevsun Resources, a copper miner with a promising project in Serbia. However, what the market disregarded was that 30% of revenue from the project were from gold, not just copper. So, you can buy investments that give you a business return but also protection just in case some of the above mentioned risks materialize. I am now exposed to silver with my portfolio, but if you would take a look at my portfolio, you would never imagine it has a silver call option in it. That is because I like it both; give me business growth and give me the insurance part for free.
Think about it, although so rational, I reiterate my question, is it and will it actually be profitable to be scared or you should simply see how to get the best out of it all?
To put things into perspective, don’t focus on what should rationally happen due to text books or chicken littles, but put probabilities onto every conclusion. What will happen in the future is probably something unknown, be ready for it by investing in both.