Stock Market Crash, Economic Recession – My Plan, Portfolio, Cash and Stock Market Investment Strategy for Return Maximization


  • Stock Market Crash Plan
  • My portfolios
  • Lump sum portfolio – 100k – crash strategy
  • 3 Stock Market Crash Investing Factors
  • Margin of safety
  • Focus on the business return
  • Don’t forget the dividends and takeovers
  • Model portfolio Stock Market Crash Strategy
  • Portfolio Strategy
  • Stock Market Crash Scenarios
  • Non-Linear Markets
  • Stocks crash all the time
  • Market timing
  • A crash can be inflationary + currency collapse
  • Conclusion

Stock Market Crash Plan

Whenever I do a video related to stock market crashes, views explode. This means investors worry about crashes and recessions. I think I can help with that.

The best thing if and when a stock market crash, economic collapse or recession come, is to have a strong plan. In this article I’ll share my plan and perhaps you will find good tips for your investment strategy so that you can increase your long term returns and lower your risks. 

I’ve been investing since 2002 when I took advantage of the post dot-com period and I also took advantage of the 2008 financial crisis. That experience is embodied in my plan but things are not that easy.

Let me:

  • Show you my portfolios and their crash/recession preparation
  • Discuss the most important things when it comes to recession proof investing
  • Show how crashes happen all the time and how take advantage of that

By the end of this article you should know enough to maximize your long-term investment returns by actually taking advantage of stock market crashes. It is extremely important to know ahead what might happen in order to act decisively when others sell in panic. 

My portfolios 

I have two portfolios that I manage that make things official as things are done publicly. On my Stock market research platform, I have a 100k lump sum portfolio launched in January 2019 and a model portfolio started with 10k plus 1k added every month launched in May 2018 when I also launched my research platform. I’ll discuss the strategies for each portfolio as those differ because one is a lump sum portfolio, thus no money will be added while the other is a portfolio with constant additions that makes risk management easier.

Lump sum portfolio – 100k – crash strategy

With 100k as a start and no additional investments, the key is to always manage your risks and have enough cash to take advantage of the opportunities arising when a stock or the whole market crashes. 

I am comfortable with a max of 8 positions because it is enough to eliminate individual catastrophic risk but it still leads to long term return maximization. 

However, on the cash position, I am currently 75% invested with 7 positions and 25% is in cash. 

The cash is 30% of the initial invested amount of 100k where the portfolio is now already at 111k but that I attribute mostly to short term volatility as the portfolio was launched just 5 months ago. 

Long-term I will be comfortable with a 20% cash balance with this portfolio. However, stocks are so volatile, especially individual stocks, that my cash balance will also be volatile. The most important thing is that you need to have a strategy when it comes to crashes and my strategy is the following:

  • 80% invested when I can find investments that will lead to 15% long-term average yearly business returns, have a margin of safety and are generally good value investments. 
  • I’ll increase my exposure to 90% when there are businesses that offer 20% yearly long-term business returns at acceptable risk.
  • I’ll increase my exposure to 100% when there are businesses that offer 25% yearly long-term business returns at acceptable risk.
  • I’ll increase my exposure to 120% through margin where there are businesses that offer 30% and higher yearly long-term business returns at acceptable risk, the dividend is more than enough to pay for the margin interest and there is no way to get a margin call.

The point of this all is not that I’ll do something because stocks crash, there is a risk of a recession or something. The point is that I’ll simply buy things when I can get value on the cheap, when the average cycle adjusted business return is high. The cheaper you can get value and returns, the better protected you are in case of a crash.

Plus, having a clear plan makes you unemotional when it comes to stock price movements, a crucial factor when it comes to investing.

Let me show you the business value I own because I think it will be extremely educational.


I own a lot of the energy, mining, food sector because it is something I can understand well and I feel it is something that will do well over the next decade. Plus, it is cheap at the moment as you can see from the 3rd column the average PE ratios around 10. 

If you look at dividends, price to book ratios and debt to equity, you will see that there is no fixed level as I mostly invest in the long-term business outlooks and those things are not reflected into fundamentals yet.

Price to book values are all over the place but that depends what you are buying and whether the value is tangible or future oriented in the form of future cash flows. However, I believe all of the businesses I own currently trade below intrinsic value. This gives me a margin of safety. 

3 Stock Market Crash Investing Factors

I have three things that I believe make investing easy, no matter the economy or stock market:

  • A margin of safety
  • The business yield
  • Dividends and takeovers

Margin of safety

As said, I believe all of my positions offer a margin of safety in a form or another. This means that if those stocks fall, I’ll be happy to buy more. A real investor is happy when stocks decline because he can simply buy more of the things he owns.

All my businesses have high cash flows or strong balance sheets which means it is unlikely those will ever go bust that gives me another margin of safety.

Focus on the business return

As said earlier, what makes investing easy is to focus on the business yield and not on the stock price. I try to find businesses that offer long term returns of 15% and above. This involves a lot of work to find such investments, understand them across the cycle and then buy when the risk is low and reward high.

I’ll explain what I mean by using the S&P 500. The current earnings/business yield of the S&P 500 is 4.72%. At the current level of 2,856 points for the S&P 500, the business earnings are134.8 points. 


Source: Multpl

An earnings yield of 4.7% also means that expected long-term investment returns will be around that number, likely a bit higher due to inflation and economic growth. So, if you wish for safety and are happy with a 5% return, buy the S&P 500. 

If you know stocks are volatile and there could be a crash coming, they you can manage your lump sum portfolio by putting portfolio exposure thresholds depending on the yield you require.


Such a strategy will allow you to be happy if stocks crash as you will be able to buy more of what you already like at a lower price. The portfolio exposure allocation depends on your personal preferences, required long term investment returns and also investing knowledge.

The most important thing when having such a strategy is that you buy more when stocks become cheaper. Thus, you will do the opposite of what most do. Stock prices will be all over the place over time, but if you know what your goal is, what are your capabilities, having such a simple plan will make investing easy and no matter what happens you will be happy.

Don’t forget the dividends and takeovers

As dividends don’t come often in most cases, dividends often seem irrelevant when compared to the daily stock market volatility of a few percentage points up or down, many disregard them. However, dividends are crucial for long term investors. If we look again at my portfolio, you can see that the yield on the whole portfolio even with the cash exposure will be around 4%.


This means that every year I’ll get at least 4% to reinvest. If stocks crash, that 4% reinvested will be of incredible importance as the returns on that will be huge. Compound that long term and you will be amazed.

Takeovers happen often and you might suddenly have 15 to 20% of your portfolio in cash. Don’t rush it, wait for good businesses to offer you the required business yield and invest when that happens.

Model portfolio Stock Market Crash Strategy

On top of the above discussed lump sum portfolio, I have a model portfolio that I started with 10k in May 2018 where I add 1k per month. 


The monthly additions cumulate over time, which means the portfolio will grow and grow no matter what happens in the market. You will also see that the cash position is much smaller at just 7%. This is because I’ll be adding 1k per month for the next 19 years and that is all the risk management I need.


When I discount all the future additions to the portfolio with a 10% discount rate for the next 19 years, the actual present value of the cash to be added is 100k. This means that the current portfolio allocation is just 20%. Therefore, if you are an investor that will still be adding money to one’s stock market portfolio, you should actually beg for a crash because your money additions, alongside the reinvested dividends, will allow you to buy more and consequently increase your long-term returns. 

Portfolio Strategy

So, my strategy is simple, with the lump sum portfolio, I own assets where I am happy with the business yield and if the business yield increases, i.e. stocks crash, I’ll simply increase my exposure. I’ll talk about timing the markets in a moment.

On the portfolio with monthly additions, as long as you still add cash to your investments, you should not worry about a crash, but simply add money and take advantage of crashes.

Stock Market Crash Scenarios

Extremely important topics related to stock market crashes are the following:

  • The markets are not linear
  • Stocks crash all the time
  • Market timing
  • A crash can be inflationary + currency collapse

Non-Linear Markets

Stock market crashes are not linear, something crashes while other things go up. It is enough to compare the Shanghai Composite Index with the S&P 500 Index over the last 5 years.


Source: Bloomberg

Over the last 5 years the Chinese stock market has experienced two bear and three bull markets while the S&P 500 was constantly in a bull market. The message is simple, stock market crashes happen all the time. Therefore, if you are diversified you can take advantage of them by buying where and when others panic. 

What is also important is that not everything crashes at the same time. The S&P 500 has been down 2.6% over the last month but some stocks have jumped 26% at the same time. 


Source: Bloomberg

So, don’t focus on the general picture, focus on the individual positions, something will go up, something will go down, just be prepared and if something is a much better bargain, buy more of the bargain.

Stocks crash all the time

If I look at my portfolio, the average decline from 5-year peaks is 41%. I would call that a crash.


Crashes constantly create opportunities and crashes are always around us. I wish I could time the market but all I can do is focus on the business. Market timing is dangerous.

Market timing

I’ve been listening to stock market crash scenarios since 2002. “You are crazy to buy stocks now” is the sentence I mostly heard in 2002, 2009 and 2012 (European crisis) when I was buying stocks heavily. However, those that stayed away from the markets, lost a lot of money on opportunity costs.

My message is that if you focus on businesses, and on the business returns and keep a strategy like we discussed where whatever happens you are fine, you don’t have to worry about stock market crashes. This is because, let’s say you own a business that has a 15% earnings yield and the stock growth at 15% when things are going good.


Even if a recession happens every 5 years and the stock drops 30%, you will still be well ahead over 10 years. Plus, no stock will behave so linearly and you would sell when others are greedy and buy when others are fearful. Thus, your returns would be even higher. If I would have listened to recession predictions in 2018:


Source: Time 2018

I would have never bought a copper miner in 2018 because copper prices are very sensitive for economic development. However, I though that a miner was of great value and that even waiting 5 years for that value to unlock itself was a good deal. A recession didn’t happen, the stock got bought out and I did ok, despite all the doom and gloom around me.


A crash can be inflationary + currency collapse

A risk few discuss is an inflationary crash. Something not unlikely given the huge budget deficits most governments run. So, it is possible that we have an Argentina stock market scenario in the future. Something you can be prepared against only if you own value.

The Argentinian Merval index is up 34 times over the last 10 years while the peso is down about 93% against the dollar over the same period. So, $1,000 invested would now be around $2,450, something better than the S&P 500 did since 2008.



For me it is very simple as it has been rewarding me for the past 18 years. Simply buy value, good businesses, great assets and enjoy the returns while being patient.

I’ll keep looking, learning and constantly comparing in order to create the best maximizing return portfolio within my circle of competence.

The more I work, the more I am confident things will be ok. Any kind of crash would actually improve long-term returns even if it might look bad on my relative performance. However, I have no boss that can fire me based on a quarterly or yearly performance so I don’t have to fear that like most money managers have.

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To Buy or to Sell Stocks with Crash Coming? Doesn’t Matter for Value Investors – Buy Value

I received this very interesting comment from a subscriber as I bought my 5th stock for my lump sum portfolio which is now 50% invested. So, I invested 50% of my portfolio over the last 3 months that might surprise people scared of the upcoming crash or recession.

stock market crash

I have 3 points to answer this question:

  • I can’t predict the future, nobody can

Nobody knows what will happen with the market, we have the last two crashes in our mind that were close to 50%, but that doesn’t mean it will happen again. Nobody, and I mean nobody knows.

  • A recession is always around the corner

There are recession predictions for 2019 and 2020, but the same could had been said in 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, and especially 2010 and 2009. There are many out there that have been waiting on the side-lines since 2009 or they just got in in the last few years. No need to mention the missed opportunities.

For example, my largest position in January 2018 was Nevsun Resources.

3 nevsun

In January 2018 there were fears about China slowing down leading to a copper crisis etc., fears of a recession and market crash over the next two years with Ray Dalio saying there is a 70% chance for an U.S. recession. I would have been better in cash than investing in a copper miner, right?

Well, all depends on value, if you find it, even if a recession happens, your returns are delayed by a year to 3. The point is that if you buy value, you will survive those bad years and get ahead after the crash. So, I, as a selective investor, simply buy when I see value and when I am happy owning the business. It has rewarded me very well in the past no matter the possible crashes. And yes, I lost money in 2008, but it is not comparable to what I made from 2009 onward and from 2002 to 2008.

Index fund investors

For those who invest in index funds, just invest on a monthly basis, just dollar cost average and forget about stocks, don’t even think about it, you will get your returns whatever they will be, own your home, invest in another property, diversify and you will be well off. Your wealth doesn’t depend on the market, but mostly on you and you not doing stupid things like most did, I.e. selling in 2009 march.

3) Highest possible return long-term

I know if there is a recession my portfolio will get hit, but I also know that the highest possible return I will get is when I buy value when I see it. So, in good years I will have great returns, in a bad year, I don’t know how I will do. There is a nice passage in the book Margin of safety by Seth Klarman discussing how when you buy value, real value, it often offers downside protection as it is already depressed in price and the price can’t go much lower. All my current 5 stocks trade below book value, mostly tangible book value, have high earnings yield and potential. So whatever happens, I am a happy owner, owning assets and that gives me a margin of safety.

To explain in an easy way what margin of safety investing is, I’ll make the next video article apple.

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Stock Market Crash, Economic Collapse, Rigged Markets? How to invest rationally!

Good day fellow investors,

Last week I made the news on the topic how one should focus on the businesses he invests in and not so much on the macroeconomics.

I’ve got this interesting email discussing how I am missing many points:

Underlying factors that affect the metrics you used in your article:

  1. The role of the ESF in market ‘rigging’. – U.S. Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund
  2. Stock buybacks from the new tax code (fudging the numbers you are working with).
  3. The key role the central banks are playing by keeping interest rates artificially depressed, thus not exposing the true cost of debt servicing.
  4. The sheer number of Zombie companies and historic high levels of BBB bonds.

Plus, how I should contact Peter Schiff, Gregory Mannerino and I would get quickly to 100k subscribers!

All the above is all correct, if I make a business analysis, I get 2k views, if I put stock market crash in the title, I get 4 times more views.


And in this article, I really want to put the topics of market rigging, buybacks, low interest rates, zombie companies into an investing perspective because I think there is a big difference between investing and protecting yourself from something that might happen but doesn’t have to happen.

2 keynes

When it comes to investing, the key is to achieve the best risk reward return and always remain solvent, no matter how irrational the market might seem.


Stock Market Fear and Irrationality


Market rigging!

Stock buybacks from the new tax code (fudging the numbers you are working with)

Artificially depressed interest rates

Corporate credit, zombie companies, government debt

How to invest keeping the risks in mind


One should think about HOW TO GET BOTH; good returns from businesses and protection from what might happen while taking advantage of possible market rigging. That is what I focus on and the message of this article is to try to give more balance to the possibly predominant message on YouTube regarding Stock market Crashes and Economic collapses etc.

We as investors have to focus on how to get the best risk reward return to reach our financial goals. Let’s say that gold explodes in 2034, I bet you that 98% of all those invested in gold at the moment, would not have the patience to wait till then to realize profits. That is one, plus, by 2034, if you have $1k now and you get a 15% return because you understand the market;

You know it is rigged,

You know buybacks are strong,

You know interest rates will remain low, or inflationary due to the huge debt,

You stay away from zombie companies, buy those that will do even better when the competition dissolves!

Your 1k become 8k thanks to the power of compounding, earnings and dividends that you don’t get if you buy insurance. Actually, insurance is a cost.

Let me put the things into perspective!

Market rigging!

The market has been rigged since ever – it is in the interest of most politicians, policy makers and people that stocks go up, pensions go up, everybody has more money, more confidence, spends more and even wages go up a bit – so it is in the interest of the current economies that markets go up, collaterals go down, and everybody is pushing for it to go up.

Take advantage of it.

On silver markets, gold markets, there are many speculators that make it look crazy and rigged because there is no rationality there. You can’t eat gold; no dividend and it doesn’t grow. In the 1980-s the Hunt brothers tried to rig the silver market. They owned 30% of global silver but regulations broke them.

Silver price:

silver price

Stock buybacks from the new tax code (fudging the numbers you are working with)

4 smart

Source: Reuters

$940 billion of buybacks expected in 2019, that is 3% of the market.

There will be ups and downs, but some buybacks are smart if made below book value, or replacement value or intrinsic value, and those values are in the eye of the beholder.

5 bubyacks

Source: Yardeni

Try to find buybacks that increase your value, your ownership and avoid those that destroy shareholder value. Compare many stocks and you will find the difference.

Artificially depressed interest rates

As long as it works, it does good in the short term while it is uncertain for the long term – again, as an investor you have to understand the game and play it wisely. The tide could change with a big inflation, but that is why I invest in businesses that would do well if there is inflation but that also do well in this environment. I get dividends, I get growth, expansion etc.

6 rate

Source: FRED

Corporate credit, zombie companies, government debt

Governments and corporations have increased their leverage as low interest rates allowed for lower borrowing costs. US government debt quadrupled in the last 20 years.

government debt

Source: FRED

However, this situation can be solved with inflation for the government and with bailouts for corporations. Plus, when zombie corporations finally fail, the environment will be healhier for good businesses. I’ll talk more about that in the next article discussing Archer Daniel Midlands (NYSE: ADM) where the CEO actually hopes for higher rates to limit the competition.

How to invest keeping the risks in mind

Now, what I just said, doesn’t mean I completely disregard it, I’m not stupid, I am not invested in companies that would go bankrupt in case interest rates go up, I am looking for both, both good businesses, that offer business returns and protection in case of any kind of crisis.

You have three options to invest your money!

The first option is to focus on protection: gold, put options, Treasuries (if you can call them protection). The second option is to focus on businesses, growth, business returns and investments.

Your $1k becomes $8k in 15 years with a 15% yearly return. If you own gold, and the dollar loses 50% of its value, you are at $2k, no dividends, no business, a lot of stress because you depend on what others are willing to pay, not on actual value.

I must say I did a lot of research on macro, especially when I was writing articles on a daily basis three years ago as that was my job, but my conclusion is, that one should be smart and take advantage of what is going on and not bet on something happening because it is logical to happen.

The situation was crazy in 2009, and many sold what they had fearing the macro voices, I was buying businesses in 2009, nice 5 baggers for me.

2 gdx

I took a loan 4 years ago, bought a house, and it was probably the best risk reward investment in my life. Fearing a crash would have me being without huge gains over the last 10 years.

The third investing option is to have it both. For example, a company I was heavily invested in 2018 was Nevsun Resources, a copper miner with a promising project in Serbia. However, what the market disregarded was that 30% of revenue from the project were from gold, not just copper. So, you can buy investments that give you a business return but also protection just in case some of the above mentioned risks materialize. I am now exposed to silver with my portfolio, but if you would take a look at my portfolio, you would never imagine it has a silver call option in it. That is because I like it both; give me business growth and give me the insurance part for free.

Think about it, although so rational, I reiterate my question, is it and will it actually be profitable to be scared or you should simply see how to get the best out of it all?

To put things into perspective, don’t focus on what should rationally happen due to text books or chicken littles, but put probabilities onto every conclusion. What will happen in the future is probably something unknown, be ready for it by investing in both.

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Nassim Taleb is warnings us – situation worse than in 2007

  • The US government has $21 trillion of debt, but few know and think about the $49 trillion in hidden debt.
  • The global economy is not stable because the core is cracking already, think Italy.
  • Taleb compares this debt environment with a Ponzi or Maddoff scheme.
  • The main message is to be protected (gold, real assets, puts).

In a recent Bloomberg video, Nassim Taleb, the author of Black Swan and probably one of the best estimators of risk, is warning us that the financial situation is worse than it was in 2007.

As Taleb doesn’t share much data in his interview, I have researched each of his statements and attached a few facts to them.

The topics he discusses and I dig deeper into are:

  • (0:00) Introduction
  • (1:23) The bigger debt pile that has just been transferred from housing to governments.
  • (4:16) The hidden debt few are taking into account.
  • (5:48) How the economy is already cracking in some places.
  • (6:32) The high probability of a global currency collapse.
  • (8:01) What will happen and how will it pan out? Inflation.
  • (9:36) 4 ways to protect yourself.

Enjoy the video.


I recently summarized Dalio’s last book, Big DEBT CRISES and there he shares his questions, check list, to see whether the stock market or economy is in a bubble or not. In today’s article, in light of the FED’s tightening, we are going to go through his questions, to see whether we are in a bubble or not.

1 bubble questions

Source: Big Debt Crises

Good day fellow investors,

my name is Sven Carlin and I am an independent investor, independent thinker who doesn’t really like to follow the crowd, that has served me well in my life and, I have the feeling it will serve me well in the future too. Let’s go through Dalio’s questions one by one and then conclude with what to do, where Dalio’s option is to have an all-weather portfolio.

We are going to look at whether the US economy and stock market are in a bubble. As for Europe, I’ll make a special article about it due to the many economies.


The US stock market is expensive and prices are much higher than traditional measures.

2 stock market price

Source: Multpl

A look at the cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio for the S&P 500 that takes into account 10 years of earnings, shows how stock prices were higher only during the dot-com bubble. But, let’s not focus only on stocks, let’s look at housing.

3 house price to income ratio

Source: Longtermtrends

The home price to income ratio is not higher than it was in 2007 but is getting close to it and it is much higher than it was in the past 50 years. Incomes were low in the 1950s so that isn’t really comparable.

To answer question one: yes, prices are high relative to historical measures.


If we take a look at the S&P 500 and at S&P 500 forward expected earnings, all we can see is fast growth.

4 price and earnings


So, huge growth is expected, S&P 500 actual earnings are at 116 points while the market expects them to be at 175 points in the next 12 months.

5 s&p 500 actual earnings

Source: Multpl

As for home prices, the huge run up in prices up to 2018 showed bubble characteristics but it has been cooling of as interest rates go up.

6 new home prices in the us

Source: FRED

So, perhaps what we have seen up to December of 2017 will again be called a bubble as higher interest rates inevitably put pressure on asset prices. Not yet on stocks as the sentiment is still strong but you can’t escape when it comes to housing.

ANSWER: YES, prices are discounting fast future price appreciation, certainly in stocks, whereas it might be over for housing.


Let’s see, Kudlow states the US economy is crushing it.

7 kudlow

Source: CNBC

While consumer confidence is close to record highs.

8 consumer confidence

Source: FRED

Answer: YES, sentiment is bullish! Even with stocks, the sentiment has been extremely greedy in 2018.

9 greed

Source: CNN


This is not in a bubble, consumer credit is just 50% higher than where it was in 2008 and is just 10 times higher than where it was in 1980. (allow for some irony here)

10 consumer credit

Source: FRED

As for the stock market, margin debt is at historical highs. Just to mention as a comparative note, margin debt was $263 billion in February of 2010 and $314 billion in July of 2008.

11 margin debt

Source: FINRA

Answer: YES, purchases are increasingly being financed by debt.


If we look at the level of business inventories, those are 33% higher than in 2008 and I don’t think the economy grew 33% since 2008.

12 inventories

Source: FRED

Answer: a mild yes in this case.


Now, the percentage of Americans owning stocks didn’t really go up that much lately as millennials don’t invest that much in stocks.

13 people invested

Source: Gallup

The middle class left after 2008, typical behaviour, buying high and selling low. If we see another bump like in 2007 where the participation jumped from 61% to 65%, we will know it’s a bubble. Those aged 35 and above are investing a bit but not yet like it had been the case.

14 americans invested

Source: Gallup

However, not investing in stocks but definitely saving for a house. New buyers are rushing into the home market.

15 new mortgages

Source: Bloomberg

Answer: with stocks it is a no but with houses it is a yes. Also, it is important to note the widening wealth gap where those that have invest more and push stocks higher while those that don’t have, simply don’t have to invest.


Interest rates have been already tightening and we can expect more in December.

16 interest rate

Source: FRED

However, just take a look at historical interest rates.

17 historical interest rates

Source: FRED

On top of monetary stimulus, there is huge fiscal stimulus.

18 budged deficit

Source: FRED

On top of the already huge deficit, the deficit is expected to breach $1 trillion in 2019.

So, to summarize on the questions:

19 summary


Now, that depends on where you are in your life, about to retire or just starting, but in any case, an all-weather portfolio is the key as we are in the late part of the cycle.

debt dalio

Source: Big Debt Crises

We are at bubble top – so a lot of opportunities to diversify by selling what is in a bubble and buying what is in depression. In a global world you can do that today.

If you wish to check how am I building my portfolio as I cashed out of most my long investments during 2015-to 2018, the last being Nevsun – you might want to check my Stock market research platform where I am slowly building my model portfolio that should do very well in this environment.

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